Growth Forecast For European Commercial Aviation Fleet

European carriers will need approximately 8,705 new airplanes through 2040, according to Boeing’s recently released 2021 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO). The CMO also forecast that Europe’s commercial aviation industry will require more than 405,000 new pilots, technicians and cabin crew over the next 20 years. It further projects passenger traffic growing at a rate of 3.1 percent annually with fleet growth expected to average 2.7 percent per year in the region.

“While Europe was significantly impacted during the pandemic, coordinated policies within the region have unlocked significant pent-up demand for air travel, resulting in an accelerating recovery,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president for commercial marketing. “Single-aisle airplanes will initially be the main driver in expanding capacity to meet demand in the region. In the long-haul segment, we see tremendous opportunity for carriers to replace older, less efficient aircraft with more versatile twin-engine models that reduce fuel use, CO₂ emissions and noise.”

The 2021 CMO predicts demand for 7,100 single-aisle aircraft and 1,545 widebodies through 2040 with an overall value of €1.25 trillion ($1.46 trillion). Boeing also noted that the global freighter fleet is expected to grow by 70 percent over the forecast period. Published annually, the CMO (PDF) focuses on long-term demand forecasts for commercial airplanes and services.