What does the financial industry think of the current state of the Urban Air Mobility movement and prospects for a successful eVTOL (electronic Vertical Takeoff and Landing) company? Advisors at The Motley Fool (TMV) compared the growth potential of investing in Archer Aviation, developer of the Midnight eVTOL hopeful, with prospects for making a killing with Viking Therapeutics, a pharmaceutical company developing a weight-loss drug known as VK2735.
After listing a series of key financial data points (speaking to their audience), TMV described Archer’s strategy as a combination of “launching an aerial ride-sharing platform” and selling aircraft to “select partners.” TMF notes that Archer is currently “racing to clear crucial regulatory hurdles that may determine its long-term success,” perhaps an oversimplified assessment of a complex business plan.
As for the down-and-dirty money numbers, TMF cites Archer’s most recent reported cash and cash equivalents as $405 million, while also noting the company lost $116.5 million in the first quarter of 2024—losses attributed to the fact that “innovation is costly.”
While TMF counts the potential for the eVTOL industry as “staggering,” with market potential estimated by “analysts” as in the trillions of dollars, the financial website notes that the payoff is likely to come sometime after 2040, making it challenging for today’s investors to quantify Archer’s long-term upside potential. TMF concludes, “While the journey to profitability may be long, Archer’s position as an early mover in this potentially transformative industry presents an intriguing [italics added by AVweb] opportunity for investors with a long-term perspective and high risk tolerance.”
In comparison, TMF calls weight-loss drug developer Viking a “real contender in this high-value category.” But, while Wall Street analysts cited in the post suggest VK2735 could generate more than $10 billion in sales by the middle of the 2030s, a decade before Archer is projected to begin to return fiscal gold, TMF warns, “Most of this latent value is predicated upon big pharma stepping into the picture through either a buyout or partnering deal.”
So, drum roll, who’s the winner in The Motley Fool’s investment shootout?
“Archer Aviation is targeting one of the largest untapped markets on the planet, and while there are a lot of competitors, this eVTOL player is a leader in the space. Viking Therapeutics, on the other hand, may require a helping hand from a big partner to realize its full potential. That introduces an element of risk into the equation that gives the edge to Archer Aviation in this comparison.”
zzzzzzZZZZZZZZ ,,, OH! Did I nod off again ??
Yeah, but don’t worry, Larry, you didn’t miss anything. 😉
“Archer Aviation is targeting one of the largest untapped markets on the planet, and while there are a lot of competitors, this eVTOL player is a leader in the space.”
Wait what? Has the fool heard about Joby who’s been flying much longer than Archer?
That last paragraph sounds suspiciously AI-written. I wonder if Motley Fool is still using humans to write this or if it’s just AI drivel.
We’ll find ways to burn money. Just go E-Everything and forget the common sense part. Now, Cash, Credit, Bitcoin or something else?
I guarantee you’ll make a killing on this…
Payoff by 2040? Technology increase by then will have this thing looking like a Wright Flyer, my opinion.
OK. that made me laugh into my cup of coffee!
At least when Jim Bede tried a mass market flying thing he had plans available.
I still cant figure out how this will be profitable if aircraft can only takeoff and land from existing airports. Seems we need to build many more small GA airports for this air mobility to work.
“eVTOL (electronic Vertical Takeoff and Landing)”
Electronic? Good one. Maybe “Electric”?
I think that the eVTOLs will find a market but the market will start out smaller than predicted and then grow (take off?). I can see the eVTOLs replacing medical helicopters as a lower cost and safer alternative and I can see military applications but I am not sure how large the air taxi will be. It will probably eventually depend on the cost per seat mile. Anyway, there are too many companies currently in the market so there will be a major shake out. If I had to pick a winning design, it probably would be Joby but I would not invest my money in any of them and I would probably also skip the investment in Viking Therapeutics.
Roger Anderson makes an interesting point. If the pace of development in electric propulsion and electronic control systems changes as much in the next 15 years as it has in the past, we may be seeing true Jetsons type aerial vehicles by then. But if the FAA has any part of it, we may still be haggling over finding an unleaded Avgas!
Tesla is the “leader” in electric cars in the world. Nobody wants to buy electric cars anymore. The market is falling like a rock! OH let’s make electric aircraft it’s way easier! LOL
Money pit hole! Get out when still possible! LOL
And just like herpes, the concept of EVs is here to stay.
DayJet and Eclipse just sayin’…..