A Washington State University-led study published in Biomass and Bioenergy estimates the U.S. could produce about 2.1 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) annually by 2030 under its most favorable scenario, short of the federal goal of 3 billion gallons per year. The study reviewed publicly announced renewable fuel projects in the U.S., including how often planned facilities reach operation, how long projects take to complete and whether available feedstocks could support projected production.
“We wanted to take a very pragmatic look at where we really are,” said Kristin Brandt, lead author of the study and an adjunct faculty member in WSU’s Composite Materials and Engineering Center. “There are people saying this industry is going to explode overnight and others saying nothing will happen at all. The reality is somewhere in between.”
According to the study, hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, or HEFA, are expected to account for most U.S. SAF production through the end of the decade. HEFA fuels are commonly produced from fats, oils and greases such as used cooking oil and animal fats, though the study noted limits in available supply. Researchers also found that some producers may have stronger financial incentives to make renewable diesel rather than aviation fuel under current market conditions and policy structures.
No study is needed to predict a big belly-flop for SAF as there is no real demand for it, other than the crony industry that wants government to force it onto Jet-A users. Plants should be used for food and feed, not fuel. Ethanol too has been a big belly-flop and gift to corn farmers and the crony producers and distributers of this fake fuel that only reduces mileage and causes all kinds of corrosion problems. What we need is vigorous exporation and distribution of our glorious fossil fuel reserves, a gift from God. Drill and Frack everywhere and all costs related to energy production will plummet.