A new forecast from Valour Consultancy projects a global in-service fleet of just under 7,000 electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) air taxis by 2050, pointing to a slower and more constrained rollout of urban air mobility than some earlier industry projections.
The analysis, published in The Future of Advanced Air Mobility – 2026, estimates 6,824 passenger eVTOL aircraft will be operating by mid-century. The consultancy describes the trajectory as a “gradual, infrastructure-limited” buildout rather than the rapid scaling often envisioned in early market expectations.
The report suggests eVTOL air taxi operations will remain concentrated in a small number of dense metropolitan regions. According to Valour, viable service networks will likely depend on megacities with strong demand, significant infrastructure investment, and a high-income passenger base capable of supporting premium pricing models.
Operating costs remain a central constraint in the forecast. The report cites battery replacement cycles, insurance, pilot training, and vertiport fees as factors likely to keep fares well above conventional ride-hailing services. It also notes that the long-promised “Uber-style” pricing structure for air taxis appears unlikely under current economics.
Geographically, the report expects China to lead early deployment, driven by coordinated infrastructure development and state-backed investment in low-altitude aviation systems. Elsewhere, progress is expected to be slower, with regulatory fragmentation and limited vertiport buildout acting as key barriers to scale.
While eVTOL air taxis make up a small share of the forecast, Valour expects broader growth across advanced air mobility, including regional electric aircraft, cargo drones, and hybrid-electric designs. Combined, these segments could total more than 19,000 aircraft in service worldwide by 2050.
I think that you can safely ignore any predictions made for 2050. This is sort of like predictions made in 1895 about the level of horse dung in our cities by 1920. I would believe that there are too many companies in this eVTOL business segment and that most of them will go bankrupt or merge but look at how many car companies there were in the 1920s.