The FAA is projecting advanced air mobility (AAM) operations could generate 24,600 departures during their first full year of service in the U.S., according to the agency’s latest Aerospace Forecast. The forecast covers airport shuttles, commuter air taxis, cargo feeders and medical transport operations.
Operations Could Ramp Quickly
The FAA estimates the nation’s initial AAM fleet will consist of seven aircraft with operations in two markets. By year three, the forecast ramps up to 80 aircraft across 15 markets, producing 334,800 annual departures. By Year 6, the FAA expects 367 aircraft will fly in 32 markets and will generate about 1.6 million annual departures. That would be roughly 4,400 flights per day.
The forecast does not assign a specific calendar year to the start of commercial AAM service. The FAA said the timing remains uncertain and will depend on factors outside the scope of its demand study. Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation and Beta Technologies are among the manufacturers the agency identified as planning operations in the 2026-2027 timeframe.
Several companies are beginning limited operations this year under the Department of Transportation’s Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing and Advanced Air Mobility Integration Pilot Program (eIPP).
“These partnerships will help us better understand how to safely and efficiently integrate these aircraft into the National Airspace System,” FAA Deputy Administrator Chris Rocheleau said when the projects were announced in March. “The program will provide valuable operational experience that will inform the standards needed to enable safe Advanced Air Mobility operations.”
Airport Shuttles Expected First
Airport shuttle service is expected to account for the largest initial share of AAM operations. The FAA also said it anticipates cargo feeder service in sparsely populated western areas and island communities, along with commuter air taxi and medical transportation operations.
To determine the fleet required to meet the projected demand, the FAA assumed aircraft used for airport shuttle, cargo and commuter air taxi service would average 28 trips per day, based on two trips per hour during a 14-hour operating day. Medical transport aircraft were projected to average 2.5 trips per day. The FAA said expected production capacity announced by manufacturers indicates aircraft availability should not constrain the projected fleet growth.
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